Weimar Inflation in America

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Probably almost everyone is familiar with the hyperinflationary episode that engulfed Germany after the First World War. That nation’s economy was crippled by monetary problems that resulted in dreadful personal hardships, even though up to that time Germany had achieved one of the highest living standards in the world.

The newly formed German government, named for the city where their constitution was drafted after the Kaiser’s abdication in 1918, kept pumping up the money supply. The process started relatively slowly, but quickly the pace of money creation accelerated.

The Weimar government was paying its bills on credit – just like Zimbabwe is now doing. The Weimar government was issuing currency in exchange for valuable goods and services that it was receiving, and the vendors of those goods and services accepted the newly issued currency in the expectation that they would be able to exchange it for goods and services of like value. However, they soon realized that they were deluding themselves. Prices were rising rapidly, with the consequence that a flight from the currency into commodities and other tangibles began.

There was no discipline on the creation of new currency, with the result that it was being issued to excess. Within a few short years, the German government eventually destroyed the Reichsmark, the currency it had been issuing, making the words Weimar Germany synonymous with hyperinflation, economic collapse, deprivation and personal hardship. All the wealth saved in Reichsmarks was wiped out.

For example, in his classic book, “Paper Money”, penned three decades ago under the pen name of Adam Smith, George J.W. Goodman recounts the story of Walter Levy, an internationally known German-born oil consultant in New York. Levy told him: “My father was a lawyer, and he had taken out an insurance policy in 1903. Every month he had made the payments faithfully. It was a 20-year policy, and when it came due, he cashed it in and bought a single loaf of bread.”

As the inflation worsened, people sold whatever they could to survive. Widdig succinctly describes it in the caption to the above photo as follows: “The impoverished middle class has to sell its cherished possessions.”He should have correctly stated though that it was the “newly impoverished middle class”. They only became destitute after the inflation had destroyed their savings and ability to maintain their standard of living.

Sadly, the problems of Weimar Germany are now appearing in the US. To survive the impact of rising prices, Americans today – like Germans did eight decades ago – are selling cherished possessions, as explained in a recent story by Associated Press entitled “Americans unload prized belongings to make ends meet”. The full article is available at the following link: http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=4750846&page=1

AP explains how some Americans are trying to cope with the ravages of inflation: “To meet higher gas, food and prescription drug bills, they are selling off grandmother's dishes and their own belongings. Some of the household purging has been extremely painful - families forced to part with heirlooms.” It is indeed no doubt painful, just as it was for the Germans in the photograph above, who surely must have been putting on a brave face for the photographer.

Confirmation of the AP story came a few days later on May 14th from an article in the Washington Post, which reported: “Nearly seven in 10 Americans are worried about maintaining their standard of living, as concern has spiked higher in just the past five months, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Soaring consumer prices are a major challenge, with many people struggling under the weight of the rising costs of fuel, food and health care. The poll shows that the weak economy and rising prices are high among voters' concerns, and contribute to a souring national mood in this presidential election year. More than eight in 10 said the country has veered pretty seriously off-track, and a separate poll released yesterday by ABC showed economic anxiety at its highest level on record since 1981. Overall, 68 percent of people surveyed in the new Post-ABC poll said they were concerned about their ability to keep up their lifestyles, a jump of 17 percentage points since December. The increase cuts across party and income lines.”

Crude oil is $132. Corn is $6.The cost of everything is rising. Inflation is worsening, and it’s not hard to understand why. M3, the total quantity of dollars, is now growing by 17% per annum. Weimar inflation has arrived in America.

The Federal Reserve is following the footsteps of the central bank in Weimar Germany. It is the same path taken by many central banks that have issued countless fiat currencies based on nothing but government promises. It is the path to the fiat currency graveyard, and the once almighty US dollar – which long ago used to be “as good as gold”, just like the Reichsmark once held that same exalted title – is knocking at the graveyard’s gate.

This insight about the importance of gold and shortcomings of fiat currency is not suprising, nor is it new. Here is what Rep. Howard Buffett, father of Wall Street legend Warren Buffett, had to say on May 4, 1948. “Our finances will never be brought into order until Congress is compelled to do so. Making our money redeemable in gold will create this compulsion.”

Absent that compulsion, the dollar is going the way of the Reichsmark. Don’t count on the US government to do the right thing and make the dollar redeemable into gold. Instead, take those steps necessary to protect yourself and your family to prepare for the dollar’s inflationary collapse. Buy gold. Buy silver. Avoid the US dollar.


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Germany Would Not Have Been Sustainable

I agree with Ken that we are not quite to the point that Weimar Germany was with their currency. He is also correct that the war reparations greatly exacerbated their problem. However, without all of that, they would have eventually ended up in a hyperinflation because it is one of the inevitable consequences of socialism. While Weimar Germany was a "republic," (as is China), it was a socialist republic with a very controlled economy. I am with Hayek in that they would have ended up in hyperinflation and dictatorship regardless, although the injustice done to them after WWI certainly accelerated it.

That being said, I believe the United States is on the same "road to serfdom." I don't think we are all that far away from hyperinflation either. Rather than what happened to Germany, our welfare state and world policeman spending are what is putting us under - without that , we would not need to constantly inflate our currency. We have been benefitting from the whole world holding large reserves of our cash for the past 60 years, and they are starting to make A LOT of noise about dumping it. When that happens - especially when the Chinese are finally ready to let their people finally enjoy the fruits of their labor - then we are in for some inflation fireworks. I believe it's coming before the end of the next president's term.

Tom Mullen

www.tommullen.net
www.myspace.com/skepticsongs

Tom Mullen Posted by Tom Mullen on Tue, 06/03/2008 - 10:12pm
Nice post

but very short on historical fact. Don't get me wrong, I agree that there is a major monetary problem in this country an I want the FR to go away just as much as you but making a comparison between 1920's Germany and the economy of todays USA ... well, there is just no comparing. I just don't ever see myself with a wheelbarrow full of cash going to the mall.
For those of you who disagree, do a little research on the Treaty of Versailles and see the massive war reparations they had to pay. Not only that they had to give up much of their country to France, Belgium, Denmark, Poland and Czechoslovakia. Much of this area was critical to the German industrial economy making it almost impossible to pay the reparations that were required so they had no choice but to print money. Instead of me going on and on.. go do the research and come back with facts if you want to discuss this further.

Ken Posted by Ken on Tue, 06/03/2008 - 8:37pm
The Federal Reserve ended reporting of "M3" numbers in

March of 2006. M3 (estimate of the total US money in circulation) had been the best indicator of inflation. Without public disclosure of M3, the Fed can print money and decieve the US as to the amount it has printed (or put into circulation by digital creation in bank accounts).

Doesn't it seem like they are destroying our money purposefully? And hiding the facts? Why?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Turk/turk_mar262006.html

taktic Posted by taktic on Tue, 06/03/2008 - 8:22pm
may I?

***Without public disclosure of M3, the Fed can print money and decieve the US as to the amount it has printed (or put into circulation by digital creation in bank accounts).

The fact that they no longer report M3 has nothing to do with how much money they can or cannot print. All it does is not make that information available any longer.
---------

The fact that they stopped reporting this number is a bit suspicious and they aren't fooling anyone. MZM is a fairly close comparison to M3 and that is running at about 12-15%. But that still doesn't constitute me and a wheelbarrow full of money going to the mall.

Ken Posted by Ken on Tue, 06/03/2008 - 9:00pm
When I re-read my comment I saw that it could

be interpreted to say that hiding M3 was "causal" for the increase in money. You are correct - it doesn't cause the problem, it hides the problem.

taktic Posted by taktic on Tue, 06/03/2008 - 9:21pm
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